Plymouth MA single family home market data

Markets can be measured. Unfortunately, most agents, broker, buyers and sellers are unaware of the most basic market data. Most people look at the price but never put that number into context.

In baseball a hitters worth can be measured by much more than his batting average and so too can a homes value be measured by much more than its list price.

Buried deep inside MLSPIN reports are basic market data any agent can mine. Few do.

I publish them here so everyone involved can better understand the Plymouth real estate market. In future posts, I’ll address these market trends effect buyers and sellers.

Total sold: The total number of single family homes sold in a month.

Absorption rate: The number of days required to sell all the homes on the market at the current rate of sales.

Average DOM till sold: Average number of days on the market a home takes to be sold.

% of original price/final price: The average percentage of the original price that homes closed at, under certain market conditions this number can exceed 100%, in which case homes are selling above list price.

$/sqft sold: The average square foot price of homes sold.

Source data in chart below or here in larger format.

Raw data source: MLSPIN. Calculations, charts by Jack Gately. Copyright Jack Gately.

The property listing data and information, or the Images, set forth herein were provided to MLS Property Information Network, Inc. from third party sources, including sellers, lessors and public records, and were compiled by MLS Property Information Network, Inc. The property listing data and information, and the Images, are for the personal, non-commercial use of consumers having a good faith interest in purchasing or leasing listed properties of the type displayed to them and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties which such consumers may have a good faith interest in purchasing or leasing. MLS Property Information Network, Inc. and its subscribers disclaim any and all representations and warranties as to the accuracy of the property listing data and information, or as to the accuracy of any of the Images, set forth herein.

An imperfect understanding of real estate value

When I see Johnny Damon, what I see is, an imperfect understanding of where runs come from,” Peter Brand (Johan Hill) in Moneyball.

When I see a home for sale, what I see is, an imperfect understanding of where value comes from. There is an epidemic failure to understand what is really happening. And this leads agents, brokers, buyers and sellers to misjudge listings and mismanage investments.

People think of buying and selling houses, your goal should be to win. Win an unfair game. A game in which all the vital statics are hidden from you, the buyer and seller. And in order to win, you need to buy lower than the market or sell higher than then market.

Most people look at a lovely property, with all the features and see a home worth $500,000. Real estate thinking is medieval. The industry is asking all the wrong questions.

Sure emotions sell homes, you love the yard, the fireplace, the granite counter top. But is it a good buy? Sure, it might be in the range the mortgage company will lend you, BUT is it comparatively a good buy in the market?

The simple fact is, most agents don’t know the answer to this question, haven’t even asked themselves. And neither have the buyers or the sellers.

Moneyball, the book, the movie and the practice developed by Bill James taught us to look at value differently. Don’t depend upon batting average, but look at the game from a different perspective, like on-base percentage.

Wrong question: What does a three bed single family home go for in my town?

Better question: Why is my offer 96% of original price, when the average closing sale price in town is 91% of original price?

That is moneyball.

What game are you playing?

Plymouth single family home inventory 42% off decade high

Yesterday, I had the pleasure of posting a nice chart from David Bates looking at the crash in supply of Boston condos over the past decade. The lack of liquidity has resulted in sellers getting asking price and sometimes even higher in the Boston condo market. Rents are up to,o since lack of supply, combined with tighter lending regulations, have made it difficult for younger professionals to buy entry level condos.

So, today I’ve taken a look at the Plymouth single family market. And yes, inventory is 42% off decade highs, consequently homes are selling a full 33 days quicker (152 days or 5 months) than the decade average.

The current Boston condo market supply is off decade highs by 2388 listings or 84% off the 2006 high.

Lack of Boston condo market liquidity pushing up rents too

The Globe is out today with a new story on how awful it is to be a renter these days:

These are good times for US landlords. For many tenants, not so much.

With demand for apartments surging, rents are projected to rise for a fifth straight year. Even a pickup in apartment construction is unlikely to provide much relief anytime soon.

That bodes well for building owners and investors. Yet the landlord-friendly trends will probably further strain the finances of many renters.

No surprise given that condo inventory is so low. In a financial terms – the market lacks liquidity. Much like the financial markets of late 2008 and early 2009.

David Bates put togther a great chart showing the crash of condo supply in Boston over the past decade. No wonder agents are pushing buyers to bid up, there is just not much out there.

Boston-Condo-Inventory-for-April-1

But where did all the condos go? Nowhere of course, there still here. Owners have collectively decided that holding property long term is more beneficial than flipping it short term. New lending and mortgage rules play a big impact for sure, but investors will eventually be drawn to the higher prices, only then will some measure of liquidity return.

Good reads/listen:

Pending home sales rise in March amid strong buyer demand

Phoenix “listings are way up and sales are way down”

Boston Logic: On how to build links without creating spam.

Buying a Boston condo? Stick to your plan.

Buying a Boston condo? Consult with your agent and develop a plan for the property. Buying real estate is an investment, put a price on it, just like a professional sports franchise does, stick to that price.

You make money on real estate when you buy, not when you sell.

Agree or disagree with Jack? Tweet me up at @gatelywire or email jack@jackgately.com

HWR: @hubway bikes are back, condo inventory is not

As sure as Opening Day, Hubway, the bike sharing program is back to mark the advent of Spring.

And with a new hashtag too: #hubwayeveryday

Good thing because you most likely can’t afford to buy or rent in Boston, at least if you believe everything you read on the internet. So you might consider East Boston.

Or maybe you can? If you have a plan and you don’t bid against yourself.

If your not on your bike, hit the roof, which is what I did after the Red Sox got swept at home this weekend, they play the Rangers at Fenway tonight.

via: @ArielSzaboRRE.